Determining the optimal competition age and the effective performance window in elite 100-meter sprinters A mixed polynomial model
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The aim of this study was to establish a performance prediction model to determine the optimal competition age and the effective window of maximum performance in the men's 100-meter sprint. A total of 408 records were analysed, corresponding to marks achieved by elite athletes who made up the World Athletics world ranking over 20 consecutive seasons (1998–2017). Polynomial gradient mathematical models and a mixed polynomial model were applied to capture the non-linear relationship between age and performance. The results show a positive progression in performance from age 18 to 24, followed by a slight plateau and an effective window of maximum performance between ages 25 and 32. The mixed polynomial model described performance by means of a second-degree polynomial (T = 10.452 − 0.0339·Age + 0.0006·Age²), whose vertex (minimum) is located, using the published rounded coefficients, at around 28–29 years of age. These findings provide coaches with an empirical reference framework, based on two decades of elite competition, for optimizing long-term planning and talent identification.
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