The extra-time artefact Exposure duration, not knockout status, accounts for higher accumulated running distance at the 2026 World Cup
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Abstract
Total distance is often reported to be higher in the knockout than in the group phase of football tournaments, but accumulated distance can be compared only across equal exposure. This study examined whether the knockout excess at the 2026 World Cup reflected tournament phase or extra-time. Team-match tracking data (104 matches, 48 teams, 208 observations; 18 with extra-time) were analysed with linear mixed models including crossed random intercepts for match and team. Unadjusted, knockout matches showed 8.52 km more total distance (95% CI 4.73 to 12.30; p < .001). After adjustment for extra-time, the knockout coefficient was −0.52 km (−2.38 to 1.34; p = .584), extra-time accounted for 32.31 km, and marginal R² rose from .145 to .764. Knockout matches of 90 minutes did not differ from group matches in total, high-speed or sprint output. Extra-time accrued total distance at 86% of the regulation rate but distance above 20 km/h at only 34%. Per-90 phase comparisons were sensitive to exposure errors of one to three minutes. Running above 7 km/h did not distinguish winners from losers. The knockout increase in accumulated distance reflects unequal exposure; volume, work rate and peak intensity require different denominators.
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